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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).

The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.

Alec Pierce has run fewer routes this year (94.0% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (73.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Alec Pierce's receiving performance has declined this year, totaling just 1.5 adjusted catches compared to 2.5 last year.

Alec Pierce's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 52.9% to 48.2%.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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