Alec Pierce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alec Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alec Pierce has gone out for fewer passes this year (93.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (73.2%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in football (68.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.6%).

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Alec Pierce's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 52.9% to 47.7%.

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