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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wideouts this year (62.6%).

The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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