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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 129.4 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

Alec Pierce has been used less as a potential target this season (92.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (73.2%).

The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 56.4% pass rate.

Alec Pierce's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 52.9% to 48.2%.

With a poor 0.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Alec Pierce rates as one of the top pass-catching WRs in the league in space.

This year, the tough Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a paltry 3.3 YAC.

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