Alec Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Alec Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 6:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.07 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Alec Pierce has earned a monstrous 26.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 81st percentile among WRs.
The Houston Texans pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Alec Pierce has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing just 51.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 1st percentile among WRs

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