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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Alec Pierce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+406/-876).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +416 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +406.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 1.16 per game since the start of last season.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Alec Pierce to be much less involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (11.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.0% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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