A.J. Green Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback TEXT1 this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

A.J. Green has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this season (8.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.7%).
A.J. Green's play as a receiver has declined this season, accumulating a mere 1.9 yards per game vs 3.1 last season.
A.J. Green's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 57.1% to 52.3%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.8%) vs. wideouts this year (64.8%).
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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