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A.J. Green

A.J. Green Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
A.J. Green Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.1% to 48.6%.
  • A.J. Green's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 3.09 yards-per-target compared to a 9.41 mark last season.
  • A.J. Green has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.81 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
  • The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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