A.J. Green Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.1% to 48.6%.
A.J. Green's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 3.09 yards-per-target compared to a 9.41 mark last season.
A.J. Green has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.81 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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