A.J. Green Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-603).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +333 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +325.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) versus wide receivers this year (68.4%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.17 per game this year.

Favors Under

A.J. Green has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
A.J. Green's 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 45.0.
A.J. Green's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.1% to 47.0%.
A.J. Green ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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