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A.J. Green

A.J. Green Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
A.J. Green Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+288/-501).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -475 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -501.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
  • A.J. Green has totaled a colossal 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.1% to 48.6%.
  • The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
  • The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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