A.J. Green Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+288/-501).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -475 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -501.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
A.J. Green has totaled a colossal 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.1% to 48.6%.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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