AJ Dillon Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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AJ Dillon

NFL · Player Props

AJ Dillon

RB · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 22, 2026 8:18 PM EST

Analysis

AJ Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+852/-9900).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.6% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.8 per game) this year.
This year, AJ Dillon has not scored a single TD on the ground.
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.33 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Panthers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
AJ Dillon has been been lightly used his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to running backs.
AJ Dillon has been in just the 13th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a feeble 2.0 figure this year.
The Carolina O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
This year, AJ Dillon has not caught any TDs through the air this year.

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