AJ Dillon Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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AJ Dillon

NFL · Player Props

AJ Dillon

RB · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 16, 2026 2:27 PM EST

Analysis

AJ Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+580/-25000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (62.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.
The projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (a massive 62.0 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on the back of AJ Dillon's trading card this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Panthers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
AJ Dillon has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among running backs.
AJ Dillon slots into just the 17th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a subpar 2.0 mark this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
AJ Dillon ranks in the 1st percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

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