AJ Dillon Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

AJ Dillon

RB · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 11:27 AM EST

Analysis

AJ Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+685/-967).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -967.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 60.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Panthers.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (33.7 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

AJ Dillon has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to running backs.
With an atrocious rate of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), AJ Dillon stands among the worst receiving TD-scorers in football among running backs since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the strong Detroit Lions defense has yielded a paltry 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.
The Lions defense has given up the 4th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.05 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.