AJ Dillon Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

AJ Dillon

RB · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

AJ Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-809).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Panthers to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.
AJ Dillon has accrued a colossal 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The rushing touchdown field reads "0" on AJ Dillon's player page since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the porous Cleveland Browns defense has yielded a whopping 0.21 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 9th-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are forecasted by the projection model to run 64.4 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Panthers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.1 per game on average).
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.
With a low 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, AJ Dillon has been among the pass-game running backs with the lowest utilization rates near the goal line in football.