AJ Dillon Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

AJ Dillon

RB · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

AJ Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1464/-2041).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1086 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2041.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league in the red zone (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
As it relates to air yards, AJ Dillon ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (just 55.1 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense last year: 8th-fewest in the league.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on AJ Dillon's stats page last year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in football against the Atlanta Falcons defense last year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been exceptional last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.