AJ Dillon Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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AJ Dillon

NFL · Player Props

AJ Dillon

RB · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

AJ Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1250/-1750).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog this week.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.6 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
As it relates to air yards, AJ Dillon ranks in the towering 90th percentile among RBs last year, totaling an impressive 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense last year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
The receiving TD column reads "0" on AJ Dillon's player page last year.
The Bears safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league last year in defending receivers.

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