A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
A.J. Dillon has been given 44.9% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing squads have run for the most yards in the NFL (160 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 29th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 37.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
A.J. Dillon's running effectiveness (3.92 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (20th percentile among RBs).
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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