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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

A.J. Dillon has received 48.0% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.

The New York Jets safeties project as the 27th-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

A.J. Dillon's rushing effectiveness (3.81 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among running backs).

A.J. Dillon has been among the bottom running backs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.

The New York Jets defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

More A.J. Dillon Player Props

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