A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
A.J. Dillon has earned 43.1% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
A.J. Dillon's ground efficiency (3.83 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (20th percentile among running backs).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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