A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
A.J. Dillon has garnered 44.0% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's rushing efficiency (3.92 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (20th percentile among running backs).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 82 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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