A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has been given 45.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (132 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's ground effectiveness (3.85 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (20th percentile among running backs).
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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