A.J. Dillon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+415/-912).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -808 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -912.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A.J. Dillon has been given 42.1% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-least run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 6th-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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