A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has run a route on 46.3% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.3%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (85.3%).

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
With a feeble 0.8 adjusted catches per game (18th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon places among the weakest pass-catching running backs in the NFL.
A.J. Dillon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 71.2% to 58.1%.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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