A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to accumulate 3.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense as the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.54 seconds per play.
A.J. Dillon has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among running backs, catching just 71.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (75.9%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (75.9%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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