A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-169/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With an exceptional 43.9% Route% (77th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon places among the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in the league.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 71.3% to 81.4%.
This year, the poor Chiefs pass defense has allowed a staggering 88.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

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