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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to garner 2.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

A.J. Dillon has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.0% this year, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

A.J. Dillon's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.2% to 73.0%.

The Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (71.4%) versus running backs this year (71.4%).

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