A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 2:10 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -189 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -196.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A.J. Dillon has been used more as a potential target this year (44.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (30.8%).
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (84.8%).
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The New York Giants defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the worst in the league since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.

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