A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 10, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
As it relates to air yards, A.J. Dillon ranks in the towering 79th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a striking 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, That is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
The the Packers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (84.8%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
A.J. Dillon's 6.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 11.3.
A.J. Dillon's 6.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season's 12.0 rate.