A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A.J. Dillon's 82.2% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 71.3% mark.
A.J. Dillon's receiving effectiveness has been refined this season, compiling 7.78 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 5.33 rate last season.
A.J. Dillon's 10.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a noteable progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 7.6% rate.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to pass on 57.2% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 63.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
This year, the daunting New York Giants defense has given up a puny 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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