A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 2:21 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
A.J. Dillon has run a route on 44.4% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.
A.J. Dillon's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 71.2% to 75.4%.
A.J. Dillon's receiving effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 6.88 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 5.34 rate last year.

Favors Under

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
When it comes to air yards, A.J. Dillon ranks in the lowly 20th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -2.0 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.8%) vs. running backs this year (64.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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