A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

My Account Log Out

reorder

A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
A.J. Dillon's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 76.4%.

More A.J. Dillon Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow