A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 65.2% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
A.J. Dillon has been among the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 19.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a big 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
A.J. Dillon has put up a puny 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 24th percentile among RBs.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.1% to 83.3%.

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