A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
A.J. Dillon has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (41.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (30.4%).
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has totaled a puny -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 23rd percentile among RBs.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.2% to 76.2%.

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