A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Green Bay offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers as the 11th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
While A.J. Dillon has earned 57.8% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Green Bay's ground game this week at 45.9%.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Minnesota's unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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