A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The projections expect A.J. Dillon to notch 18.8 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.
While A.J. Dillon has garnered 52.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Green Bay's rushing attack in this week's game at 36.3%.
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to run on 42.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 63.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New York's DT corps has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

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