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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

In this week's contest, A.J. Brown is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.9 targets.

A.J. Brown's 91.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 77.6.

The Commanders cornerbacks rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 4 points.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.04 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

A.J. Brown's receiving talent has declined this year, totaling a measly 4.6 adjusted receptions compared to 6.2 last year.

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