A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) against the Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
In this contest, A.J. Brown is predicted by the projections to place in the 97th percentile among WRs with 10.0 targets.
A.J. Brown's 34.7% Target% this year shows a a noteable growth in his air attack volume over last year's 28.1% figure.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
A.J. Brown's 7.3 adjusted catches per game this season marks a a substantial improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 5.2 figure.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Rams defense has surrendered a paltry 53.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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