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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

Our trusted projections expect A.J. Brown to notch 9.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

A.J. Brown's 78.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 70.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

The Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.2%) versus WRs this year (58.2%).

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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