A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
In this game, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the model to land in the 94th percentile among WRs with 10.0 targets.
A.J. Brown's 79.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 70.9.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Eagles grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

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