A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -162 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown's 70.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (63.1%).
The New England Patriots safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.