A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-220/+170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accrue 8.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown's 79.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 70.2.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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