A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (91.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (77.9%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

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