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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+126/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -157.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this season (93.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (77.9%).

THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

A.J. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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