A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown's 72.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 99th percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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