A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-106/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this season (91.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.

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