A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this season (89.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 4.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.