A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-112/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
A.J. Brown's 70.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.

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