A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The projections expect A.J. Brown to accrue 8.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
A.J. Brown has accrued a colossal 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
A.J. Brown's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, notching a measly 7.77 yards-per-target vs a 9.99 rate last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).

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