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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (+100/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this season (93.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (77.9%).
  • THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
  • A.J. Brown has accrued a whopping 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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