A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 67.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles will be rolling with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (92.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to garner 8.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 143.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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